Just two months ago that Morgan Rogers stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered while the Villa manager admonished him for missing a penetrating pass. During that period, with the team endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained if Rogers' form were an indicator or a cause for the side's broader struggles.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
This weekend, though, the manager's outburst was entirely decidedly more positive. When Rogers drilled in his brace-sealing goal to reinstate Villa's lead, the boss tore off his jacket, opened his arms and roared. The Birmingham club continued to a tenth straight victory and having failed to win their initial half-dozen matches, now sit only three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Serious Title Contenders?
This is a particularly tough query to answer. Past precedent, the traditional standing of this institution, suggests not. Additionally, they have not been completely commanding this season, even as the wins have piled up.
As per the data, twice all season has the side had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a side who have put together 10 in a row, the Villans look curiously susceptible – however right now the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
Their recent policy looks like to engage in a shootout with an opponent before hoping their star man to save the day with a couple of clinical strikes. It happened at Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and again versus Manchester United.
The initial strike stemmed from a superb shot, bent just inside the post from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opposition registered more shots and more direct attempts. They have secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those games.
A statistical correction could be the biggest rival the club must confront over the coming weeks. Rogers, surely, cannot keep on thrashing his shots into the top corner indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists a different scenario where, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs may yet return to peak condition.
- The centre-forward could start finding the net regularly.
- The attacking talent might become the player he was in Germany.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to come back from the treatment room, strengthening a sometimes shaky defence.
Maybe within that lies the potential of a genuine bid, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
However, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought Aston Villa would sit third at Christmas. And most definitely back in October, nobody thought the young forward by the end of the year would be leading a title charge while establishing himself as a vital Three Lions star.
This remarkable period should be enjoyed precisely because it appears so improbable. When the match-winner faced the home supporters at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. These runs of form are rare in football and should be relished.
